{"id":2342,"date":"2011-12-05T17:58:32","date_gmt":"2011-12-05T17:58:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/butcherbaker.net\/wordpress\/?p=2342"},"modified":"2011-12-05T17:58:32","modified_gmt":"2011-12-05T17:58:32","slug":"lies-liars-and-bs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/","title":{"rendered":"Lies, Liars and BS"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Police, prosecutors, judges and juries all have a vested interest in determining when someone is lying. The same can be said of diplomats, entrepreneurs and investors. And, you know, parents.<br \/>\nWe have all seen the use of polygraph machines on TV, though they are not admissible in court. They are <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kaheel7.com\/eng\/index.php\/health-a-medicine\/431-detection-of-lying-\" title=\"Polygraph unreliable\">quite unreliable<\/a>; ten percent of liars pass and twenty percent of truth tellers fail. So, <em>30 percent<\/em> of the time, polygraph tests grab the wrong people. Remember that statistic.<br \/>\nNow Anne Eisenberg reports for the New York Times about <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/12\/04\/business\/lie-detection-software-parses-the-human-voice.html?_r=2&#038;adxnnl=1&#038;hpw=&#038;adxnnlx=1323022508-oaHu9f7VsCIXM++Y+uD1pg\" title=\"Software that listens for lies\">software that listens for lies<\/a>. No clumsy machine need apply; this emerging field studies what scientists call &#8220;emotional speech,&#8221; the language of deception, friendship and anger.<br \/>\nBefore we dip our toes too deeply in these waters, let us remember that lying is an engrained part of human life. In a <a href=\"http:\/\/smg.media.mit.edu\/library\/DePauloEtAl.LyingEverydayLife.pdf\" title=\"Lying in Everyday Life\">landmark study<\/a> from the late &#8217;90s, researchers found that college students reported telling two lies a day, in what amounted to one out of three of their social interactions (33%). Community members told one lie a day, in what amounted to one out of five social interactions (20%). The range of lies told is noteworthy. There were:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lies about opinions.<\/li>\n<li>Lies about achievements.<\/li>\n<li>Lies about events, people or possessions.<\/li>\n<li> Lies told to elicit a particular emotional response.<\/li>\n<li>Lies told to protect the liars&#8217; interests.<\/li>\n<li>Outright lies, exaggerations and subtle lies designed to mislead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Let us also acknowledge that not all &#8220;lies&#8221; are &#8220;bad.&#8221; We accept it as gospel that one should probably <em>not<\/em> answer in the affirmative when asked if a particular garment makes a person &#8220;look fat.&#8221; Better a neutral &#8220;it looks okay&#8221; in such situations. Chances are that&#8217;s enough to elicit a garment switch.<br \/>\nThere is a third, more profound problem, however. The human brain is a &#8220;fabrication machine.&#8221; An experiment by neuroscientist <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eagleman.com\/\" title=\"David Eagleman\">David Eagleman<\/a> illustrates the point. Participants were asked to choose between two randomly chosen cards, labeled A and B. They had no way of knowing which was the better choice, though they were rewarded somewhere between a penny and a dollar for the correct one. &#8220;What the participants didn&#8217;t know was that the reward in each round was based on a formula that incorporated the history of their previous forty choices &#8212; far too difficult for the brain to detect and analyze.&#8221;<br \/>\nThat, however, did not stop the participants from coming up with explanations.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;[T]heir conscious minds, unable to assign the task to a well-oiled zombie system, desperately sought a narrative. The participants weren&#8217;t lying; they were giving the best explanation they could&#8230; Minds seek patterns. In a term introduced by science writer Michael Shermer, they are driven toward &#8216;patternicity&#8217; &#8212; the attempt to find structure in meaningless data.&#8221; [David Eagleman, Incognito: The Secret Lives of the Brain]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Of course, we have to acknowledge a distinction here. Daily lies, and brain in-filling of missing narratives, are not often the serious deceptions of the type designed to hide crimes and other harmful acts. That said, these new techniques, while improvements, fall far short of the accuracy necessary to make them reliable instruments in mission-critical situations. The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/12\/04\/business\/lie-detection-software-parses-the-human-voice.html?_r=2&#038;adxnnl=1&#038;hpw=&#038;adxnnlx=1323022508-oaHu9f7VsCIXM++Y+uD1pg\" title=\"Dan Jurafsky\">algorithms developed<\/a> by leading scientist Dan Jurafsky, for example, can identify a liar 70 percent of the time, compared to human assessments of the same data in the 57 percent range.<br \/>\nSounds impressive. Until you realize his algorithms are wrong <em>30 percent<\/em> of the time. Ouch. No better than a polygraph.<br \/>\nThere is a lesson here, somewhere.<br \/>\nIn the software world, for example, a predicative feature that is correct 70 percent of the time is not good enough; users will stop trusting the feature very quickly, because they care more about the 30 percent error rate. In the U.S. criminal justice system, with its presumption of innocence, getting it wrong 30 percent of the time is, one would hope, unacceptable. In a 2010 Stanford Law Review article, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/url?sa=t&#038;rct=j&#038;q=the%20substance%20of%20false%20confessions&#038;source=web&#038;cd=2&#038;ved=0CCYQFjAB&#038;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stanfordlawreview.org%2Fsystem%2Ffiles%2Farticles%2FGarrett.pdf&#038;ei=eQLdTpFk7tyJAtze3KUK&#038;usg=AFQjCNH5McccKStaimwmUtv4So_qAiaCYA\" title=\"The Substance of False Confessions\">The Substance of False Confessions<\/a>&#8221; by Brandon L. Garrett, the author notes that, &#8220;Postconviction DNA testing has now exonerated over 250 convicts, more than forty of whom falsely confessed to rapes and murders.&#8221; Somehow it&#8217;s inconceivable that a new technology, with a 30 percent failure rate, is going to make things&#8230; ah&#8230; better.<br \/>\nThe research will go on. The technology will improve. Triangulation with other evidence will, as always, prove decisive. But if it sounds to good to be true? It is. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Police, prosecutors, judges and juries all have a vested interest in determining when someone is lying. The same can be&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,22,30,31],"tags":[79,142,178,186,187,251,306,400,504,509,553],"class_list":["post-2342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-butcher-baker","category-movies","category-technology","category-true-crime","tag-anne-eisenberg","tag-butcher-baker-2","tag-dan-jurafsky","tag-davide-eagleman","tag-deception","tag-frozen-ground","tag-incognito","tag-new-york-times","tag-software-that-listens-for-lies","tag-substance-of-false-confessions","tag-true-crime-2"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Lies, Liars and BS - Butcher Baker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lies, Liars and BS - Butcher Baker\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Police, prosecutors, judges and juries all have a vested interest in determining when someone is lying. The same can be&hellip;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Butcher Baker\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2011-12-05T17:58:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/\",\"name\":\"Lies, Liars and BS - Butcher Baker\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2011-12-05T17:58:32+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/f16b07380e2aeabe325f253e80a8cad1\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Lies, Liars and BS\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/\",\"name\":\"Butcher Baker\",\"description\":\"True Crime in Alaska\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/f16b07380e2aeabe325f253e80a8cad1\",\"name\":\"Admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0b41082448a18de8c0c7214b350a882?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0b41082448a18de8c0c7214b350a882?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Admin\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/author\/admin\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Lies, Liars and BS - Butcher Baker","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Lies, Liars and BS - Butcher Baker","og_description":"Police, prosecutors, judges and juries all have a vested interest in determining when someone is lying. The same can be&hellip;","og_url":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/","og_site_name":"Butcher Baker","article_published_time":"2011-12-05T17:58:32+00:00","author":"Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Admin","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/","url":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/","name":"Lies, Liars and BS - Butcher Baker","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/#website"},"datePublished":"2011-12-05T17:58:32+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/f16b07380e2aeabe325f253e80a8cad1"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/2011\/12\/05\/lies-liars-and-bs\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Lies, Liars and BS"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/#website","url":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/","name":"Butcher Baker","description":"True Crime in Alaska","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/f16b07380e2aeabe325f253e80a8cad1","name":"Admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0b41082448a18de8c0c7214b350a882?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0b41082448a18de8c0c7214b350a882?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Admin"},"url":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/author\/admin\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2342"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2342"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2342\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lelandhale.com\/butcherbaker\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}