When we were in Valencia, Spain, during 2022, we had the chance to meet a clutch of Ukrainians granted temporary protections by Spain. They were all women (many with children). Their menfolk remained behind on the Ukrainian front, resisting the Russians in whatever way they could. The women were busy fundraising, both to support fellow displaced Ukrainians and their home country’s battle for survival against Putin’s inmates. Their dedication to country and cause was impressive. They knew Ukraine was worth the fight.
Recently I read a piece from Politico.eu, in which the ever cuddly authoritarian, Viktor Orbán of Hungary, declared that the Ukraine war was over. Well, depending on whom the U.S. elects as its next president. [Orbán should know: he happens to be buddy-buddy with The Former Guy.]
Donald Trump will totally stop funding Ukraine if he wins the U.S. election in November, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said following a meeting between the right-wing figureheads.
“He will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war,” Orbán told Hungarian state media Sunday. “Therefore, the war will end, because it is obvious that Ukraine cannot stand on its own feet.”
Claudia Chiappa, Politico EU, March 11, 2024
Appeasement = New Front
Doomed to repeat history when we forget it, let me remind you that we’ve seen this movie before. It was a 30s feature film about how German industrialists thought they could control Hitler. About how Brit diplomat Neville Chamberlain went on an embarrassing trek to negotiate peace with a madman. On 29 September 1938, he signed the Munich Agreement, guaranteeing Germany’s capture of Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia. Returning from Munich, Chamberlain gave his infamous, “Peace With Honour, Peace for Our Time” speech. But all Chamberlain got was a t-shirt and another front in a much larger war. One that he naively hoped to avoid. Which takes us to the present day…
Can I say “NATO?”
NATO (OTAN in Latin languages) is an oft-maligned alliance. Its members have an ever-shifting history of support and resentment toward the organization. Not lately, of course. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine brings back many unpleasant memories. Memories so devastating that both Finland and Sweden have recently joined the block. Vlady is a better recruiter than he imagines. The NATO front is larger than it was just two years ago.
The New Front
If you look closely at the above map, you will see a very small red speck on the Baltic called Kaliningrad. (Below Lithuania, west of Belarus). Kaliningrad is a Russian outpost, its only ice-free port on the Baltic. As one might expect, it’s heavily militarized. If your name is Vladimir Putin, you have a certain longing for what Kaliningrad represents. Old Russia. The Empire. And there it sits, beckoning. A Russia that once held Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in its grip. Yeah. Ukraine is just the start. The first front in a wider war. Say goodbye to Georgia, too (sorry, MTG, not that Georgia).
Thanks Buddy
The map above shows Putin’s post-Ukraine plan in its starkest terms. No, of course this hasn’t been “officially” published. Well, actually… There was a Putin speech. A very revealing speech. Do not be deceived. Binary choices are soothing. But often wrong. It’s not just the U.S. southern border vs. Ukraine.
Equally worrying is that Putin’s Feb 21 [2022] speech referred quite explicitly to restoring not the Soviet Union, which he criticized in various ways, but the Russian empire as it existed prior to 1917. That not only calls into question all of the former Soviet states, but also a large part of Poland, including Warsaw, which was part of the Russian empire.
Professor Paul D’Anieri, Harvard University Ukrainian Research Institution
In case you missed the exit, the NATO pledge declares that an attack against one is an attack against all. Vlady’s got his sights on at least four NATO members. Say goodbye to Europe? Once that one starts, it’s impossible to predict. Apparently the Polish government agrees. (Yeah. Look where they sit.)
FOOTNOTE: Am I being alarmist? Sure. I’ve also left out some nuance. I haven’t “war gamed” this (above my pay grade), I haven’t considered the weight of the Pope’s plea for Ukraine peace negotiations, I haven’t placed any of my “informed speculation” along a timeline. That said, Vladimir Putin had been very clear about his designs on the Baltic states. Unwavering in his disgust for what he considers NATO’s expansionist aims.
“When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.”
Maya Angelou
Copyright Leland E. Hale (2024). All rights reserved.
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