Two seemingly unrelated stories caught my eye today. The first is news from Amazon that it forecasts a “far weaker-than-expected outlook for the crucial holiday season quarter.” The reason? Spending on ramped up production for new Kindle models, one in particular:
It has spent heavily on its new Kindle Fire tablet computer and despite the overwhelming response that it has received prompting an increase [in] its production, Amazon said it might lose as much as $200 million in the fourth quarter.
Then we read about the new Bloomberg TV app for the iPad. Assume for the moment that the pundits are right in predicting this is the future of TV. Here’s the money quote:
The app is currently available for iPad devices only. Okaro [global head of Bloomberg mobile] says an edition for Android will come “in due course” but the iPad “is where the audience is at the moment.”
You have read on these pages that we don’t see the Amazon Kindle as a direct competitor to the iPad or, for that matter, the (so far anemic) Android tablet category. We stick by that. What’s of interest is Amazon’s willingness to sustain losses to get onto the playing field. At this point, they’re sounding more and more like “the other guys” in the Android tablet market. Spend big bucks on a device. Sell at a loss. Lower your expectations if not outright cancel the project (as HP did with its WebOS tablets).
We still think Amazon has a “better way,” because it adds compelling content to the equation. That’s something (almost) everyone else in Android’s extended family has neglected, to their detriment. But once more, Amazon is asking its investors to be patient as it buys market share.
I don’t know that Bloomberg can anoint anyone. Yet I’m curious as hell to see which member of the extended Android clan gets Bloomberg TV first. My one dollar bet is that we’ll see it debut on the Kindle Fire before it hits the rest of the Android ecosystem’s siblings, cousins, half-cousins and bastard step-children. The Fire will sell in ways unheard of for its Android rivals and will benefit accordingly. Meanwhile, we’ll keep a close eye on whether Amazon’s business model gamble pays off. I’m guessing it will but, so far, it’s been a losing formula.
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